The global population growth rate is slowing down, and in some areas, such as Europe, it has already become negative. In Italy, the situation is particularly critical, with a forecasted decline in population from nearly 60 million to about 48 million by 2070. This decline is accompanied by a significant increase in the percentage of people over 65, which will exceed 35% of the population by 2050. Italy is one of the world’s most rapidly aging countries, surpassed only by Japan, where the percentage of people over 65 is currently around 28.4% of the total population. In Italy, the age group between 40 and 60 will be significantly reduced by 2050, while the percentage of elderly people will continue to rise.
The aging of the population and the decrease in the working-age population are putting pressure on the sustainability of the pay-as-you-go pension system, where current workers’ contributions fund retirees’ pensions. The current state of the birth rate in Italy is characterized by a negative trend that has been ongoing for several years. In 2023, the birth rate was 6.4 per thousand, down from 6.7 per thousand in 2022. There were 379,890 births, a decrease of 3.4% compared to the previous year. The average number of children per woman fell to 1.2 in 2023, one of the lowest values in the world.
The birth rate in Italy and South Korea shows significant differences, although both countries face demographic challenges. South Korea has an even lower birth rate. In 2023, the birth rate was 4.5 per thousand, with a total fertility rate of 0.72, one of the lowest in the world. However, in 2024, the total fertility rate rose to 0.75, marking a reversal of the trend probably due to government policies and social changes. In general, Italy has a higher birth rate than South Korea, but both countries struggle to maintain a stable population. While Italy continues to record a decline in births, South Korea has recently shown signs of recovery, although it still remains one of the countries with the lowest birth rates in the world.
The Italian government is implementing various measures to improve the birth rate situation in the country. Among the main initiatives is the 2025 Birth Bonus, which provides a contribution of 1,000 euros for each child born or adopted starting from January, 1st, 2025. This bonus is intended for families with an ISEE (Equivalent Economic Situation Indicator) below 40,000 euros and represents immediate financial support for new families. Furthermore, the Universal Single Allowance has been increased by 50% for the first year of the newborn’s life, offering greater financial support to families. Paid parental leave has been extended from two to three months, allowing parents to spend more time with their children in the early years.
Measures have also been introduced to facilitate families through tax deductions and the family quotient, aimed at reducing the tax burden on family units. Finally, the financial allocation for the Nursery Bonus has been increased, facilitating access to childcare services. These measures aim to provide economic support to families and encourage birth rates, although many experts believe they are still insufficient to solve the structural problem of low birth rates in Italy.
In conclusion, the demographic decline and aging of the population represent a significant challenge for Italy. Although there are no simple or immediate solutions, a combined approach could be effective. This includes individual planning through complementary pensions, state interventions aimed at supporting birth rates and the labor market, and improving financial literacy. Individual initiative and awareness of the current situation are crucial elements for addressing the uncertainty of the future pension landscape.