In 2023, a total of 677,800 babies were born in France, marking a significant decline of 6.6% compared to the previous year. This drop is not just a short-term fluctuation but part of a longer trend, as the number of births has fallen by approximately 20% since 2010, which was the last peak in birth rates. One of the key indicators of demographic change, the total fertility rate, also reached a historic low in 2023, with an average of only 1.68 children per woman. This is the lowest recorded since World War II, with the exception of 1993 and 1994.
This downward trend in birth rates is reminiscent of past periods of demographic decline, particularly during major crises such as World War II. During the war years, birth rates plummeted due to widespread instability, economic hardship, and the disruption of family life. However, the post-war period saw a remarkable turnaround. From 1945 to 1965, France experienced a “baby boom,” characterized by a sharp rise in births, driven by renewed optimism, economic recovery, and strong pro-natalist policies. This era of population growth reflected a broader sense of hope in the future. In contrast, trend is moving in the opposite direction, raising pressing questions about the underlying causes and the long-term consequences of fertility rates.
Despite this decline, France still maintains a relatively higher birth rate compared to many of its European neighbors. In 2023, France’s fertility rate remained above that of Spain and Italy, where it hovers around 1.2 children per woman, indicating even more severe demographic challenges in those countries. Nevertheless, the overall trend across Europe suggests a shared demographic reality. Many European nations are grappling with similar issues, leading to concerns about aging populations, labor shortages, and the sustainability of social welfare systems.
Amid this demographic shift, the French government has introduced various policy measures aimed at reversing the decline. On January 16th, 2024, French President Macron announced the introduction of a new “birth leave” policy to replace the current parental leave system. The existing parental leave has often been criticized for being financially unattractive, as low compensation discourages many parents from taking time off to care for their children. The newly proposed birth leave seeks to address this issue by offering a shorter leave period with higher financial support, making it a more viable and appealing option for working parents. In addition, the government is exploring tax incentives to support larger families, including a proposal to grant an additional half tax share starting from the second child. This aims to ease financial burdens and encourage larger families.
In conclusion, the declining birth rate in France is a complex issue that mirrors broader demographic trends across Europe. While government policies aim to counteract this trend, their long-term impact remains uncertain. The critical question remains: Will these initiatives be enough to sustainably increase birth rates, or will deeper economic and societal factors need to be addressed to create an environment where larger families become a more viable and attractive choice for future generations?